Flash boursier

Equity markets continued their consolidation move last week as rising bond yields and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East dampened the mood among investors.

The optimistic outlook for successive Fed rate cuts is unlikely to materialise any time soon, leading to sharp downward revisions in rate-cutting forecasts. As a result, yields swung back upwards sharply last week, with the US 10-year yield retracing upwards of 4.60% and its German counterpart breaking northwards of 2.50%,

The US economy has once again shown a great deal of resilience. Retail sales rose by 0.7% in March, beating market expectations, on the heels of a 0.9% increase in the previous month. Excluding the automotive sector, sales even rose by 1.1% last month, following a 0.6% increase in February.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve noted the 0.4% rise in industrial production last month, following on from a similar increase in February.

Manufacturing output rose by 0.5% after a 1.2% increase in February, versus a consensus forecast of 0.3%.

In the labour market, initial jobless claims were stable, clocking in at 212,000 in the week ended 13 April.

Even so, the underlying trend points to a lower number of claimants in a market that still appears tight.

In Europe, 12-month inflation slowed in March, in line with the flash estimate. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) came in at 2.4% versus 2.6% in February. Looking at month-on-month figures, however, inflation was higher than expected at 0.8%.

In China, the publication of Q1 2024 GDP was a mix of good and bad. Growth was stronger than expected, but industrial production and household consumption were again sluggish.

All in all, the S&P 500 ended the week down 3.05% and the Nasdaq 5.52%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 dipped 1.18%.

This week, initial estimates for Q1 2024 GDP and PCE inflation for March are due out in the US. Earnings reports from Tesla, Meta, IBM, Microsoft, Alphabet and Intel will also be scrutinised.

In Europe, several blue chips will also be reporting including SAP, Novartis, Roche, Air Liquide, Hermès, Nestlé, Sanofi and Schneider.